The winds of political momentum seem to be shifting in President Biden's favor as Trump has a huge problem with Nikki Haley's voters.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll found:
About 39% of registered voters in the week-long poll that closed Wednesday said they would vote for Democrat Biden if the election were held today, while 38% chose Republican former President Trump. Biden's lead was within the survey's margin of error of 1.8 percentage points.
Many voters remain undecided, with 11% saying they would vote for other candidates, 5% saying they would not, and 7% saying they didn't know or declined to answer.
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Trump had a marginal lead among all those polled, but Biden's lead among registered voters was significant because people who are already registered to vote are more likely to do so in November. Only two-thirds of eligible voters participated in the 2020 presidential election, when Biden defeated Trump.
No one should put too much faith in any poll, but the Reuters poll was conducted over a week with nearly 5,000 respondents. It was not a quick survey done with a small sample.
The survey is likely to give a more realistic view of where things stand now. President Biden has a small advantage. There are a ton of undecided voters, and Trump has a big problem with Nikki Hale voters.
Only 37% of Hale voters said they would vote for Trump. 16 percent said they would vote for Biden. The rest of the republican voters suggested that they would not vote or would vote for someone else.
Biden isn't in nearly as much trouble as some other polls have suggested, but at this stage, when the vast majority of voters aren't paying attention, the incumbent has a slight edge with voters most likely to vote.
The incumbent has a fundraising advantage, no criminal charges against him, and much more than Trump.
It's not hard to see the election trending in the direction of more voters swinging toward President Biden as Trump continues to run further to the far right.
It's not yet spring in this presidential election year, but the incumbent has a visible path to a second term.
Sarah Reese Jones (@PoliticusSarah) March 8, 2024
Biden is against Trump and his lies, showing Americans what he has done and what is at stake in 2024.
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Jason is the managing editor. She is also the White House Press Center and Congressional Correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a BA in Political Science. Her graduate work focused on public policy, specializing in social reform movements.
Awards and professional memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and the American Political Science Association
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