This year will be “years of recovery and preparation on both sides, as in 1916 and 1941-42 in the last world wars,” said Marc Thies, who retired last year as Belgium's deputy defense chief with the rank of lieutenant general.
Looking ahead
To gauge the outlook for the coming year, POLITICO asked analysts, serving officers and military experts to share their views on the war's progress.
No one could provide a precise road map for 2024, but all agreed that three key tenets would determine the trajectory of the coming months. First, this spring is about managing expectations, as Ukraine will not have the equipment or personnel to launch a significant counteroffensive; secondly, Russia, with the help of its allies, has secured artillery supremacy and is hitting Ukrainian positions along with relentless ground attacks. and third, without Western air defenses and long-range missiles, as well as artillery shells, Kiev will struggle to mount a credible, sustainable defense.
“The year will be difficult, no one can predict which direction Russia will go or we will advance this year,” says Ukrainian military analyst, Sergeant Taras Chmut of the Navy Marine Corps Reserve.
It is clear, however, that Ukraine is on the back foot.
After weeks of bloody fighting, Russia finally captured the fortress city of Avdiivka this month. Without pausing, its military launched attacks on other key Ukrainian bases and logistics hubs: Robotin in the Zaporizhia region, Kupiansk in Kharkiv, and Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region.
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